VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s coffee exports continued to grow strongly in volume during the first nine months of 2026, but a sharp decline in average export prices weighed on total export value. Vietnam shipped nearly 1.5 million tonnes of coffee during the period, up 16.2% year on year, while average export prices fell 16.66%. With global coffee supplies expected to recover in the 2026/27 season and Vietnam’s new crop entering the market from November, increased availability could add further pressure to prices and reinforce the industry’s shift toward higher-value processed coffee.
Summary:
> Strong export growth: Vietnam exported nearly 1.5 million tonnes of coffee in the first nine months of 2026, up 16.2% from a year earlier, generating around $6.6 billion in export revenue.
> Lower prices weigh on value: Average coffee export prices fell 16.66% year on year, offsetting much of the benefit from higher export volumes.
> Global supply is recovering: USDA forecasts global coffee production at 189.7 million 60-kg bags in 2026/27, up about 6% from the previous season.
> Value-added production gains importance: As global supplies recover, Vietnam’s coffee industry is expected to focus increasingly on processed coffee, traceability, sustainability and compliance with the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).
Vietnam’s coffee exports rise sharply, but lower prices weigh on revenue
Vietnam’s coffee exports continued to expand strongly in volume during the first nine months of 2026, but lower export prices are putting pressure on overall export revenue.
According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), Vietnam exported nearly 1.5 million tonnes of coffee during the first nine months of 2026, up 16.2% from the same period in 2025. Total export revenue reached approximately $6.6 billion.
September exports alone were estimated at around 124,000 tonnes, up 53% year on year. The sharp increase indicates that shipments remained active toward the end of the 2025/26 coffee crop year.
However, stronger export volumes have not been sufficient to offset the impact of lower prices.
According to Vicofa, the average coffee export price fell 16.66% in the first nine months compared with the same period last year. The decline was the main reason that double-digit volume growth did not translate into a corresponding increase in export value.
The development marks a significant shift from the previous period, when elevated global coffee prices provided strong support for Vietnam’s export revenue over an extended period.
Global supply recovery adds pressure to the price outlook
One of the key factors currently weighing on coffee prices is the improving outlook for global supply.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts global coffee production at approximately 178.8 million 60-kg bags in the 2025/26 season, up 3.5 million bags from the previous season.
For the 2026/27 season, global production is expected to rise further to around 189.7 million bags, an increase of more than 10 million bags, or approximately 6%.
Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is expected to contribute significantly to the increase in global supply, with production forecast at nearly 72 million bags.
Vietnam’s production is also expected to improve, rising from around 31.7 million bags to 32.5 million bags in the new season, an increase of approximately 2.5%.
According to Nguyen Nam Hai, chairman of Vicofa, elevated coffee prices over nearly three years encouraged growers in many producing countries to increase investment in their plantations, improve farm management, expand planted areas and raise productivity.
As those investments begin to generate results, recovering production is adding new supplies to the market and putting downward pressure on global coffee prices.
New-crop supplies to enter the market from November
Vietnam’s 2026/27 coffee crop will begin in November, when supplies from the new harvest gradually enter the market.
The increase in domestic availability is expected to support continued export activity during the final months of the year.
Vicofa forecasts Vietnam’s total coffee exports in 2026 could increase by around 8%-10% from 2025.
However, the outlook for export value will depend heavily on price developments.
If green coffee prices continue to decline, stronger export volumes will not necessarily translate into a corresponding increase in export revenue.
This highlights the need for Vietnam’s coffee industry to gradually reduce its dependence on volume-driven export growth.
Value-added processing becomes more important as raw coffee prices decline
Against a backdrop of recovering global supply and pressure on coffee prices, quality improvement and value-added processing are becoming increasingly important for maintaining export value.
According to Vicofa, companies need to increase the share of processed coffee, develop higher-value products and continue expanding markets rather than relying primarily on exports of green coffee.
At the same time, increasingly stringent requirements on traceability and sustainable production could create a wider price differentiation between coffee supplies that meet international standards and those that do not.
In particular, coffee shipments that comply with the requirements of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) are expected to have easier access to the European market and potentially command a price advantage over supplies that do not fully meet the requirements.
From volume growth to value growth
With coffee production recovering both in Vietnam and globally, the industry’s challenge in the coming period will not simply be to export more coffee, but to generate greater value from every tonne exported.
In the near term, the arrival of Vietnam’s new-crop supplies from November, combined with expectations of higher global production, could add further pressure to coffee prices. At the same time, growth in export value will increasingly depend on the industry’s ability to improve quality, strengthen traceability, expand processing capacity and develop higher-value products.
For Vietnam’s coffee industry, the next phase could mark a shift from volume-driven growth toward competition based increasingly on quality, traceability and value-added processing.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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